Jets Week 2 Preview: Run It Back Against Green Bay

Week 2 kicks off tomorrow with the Lions visiting the Bills for the first regular-season game at High Price Mark Stadium—a battle of future Jets opponents. But in the more immediate future, the Jets have their sights set on their home opener against the Green Bay Packers.

As I wrote about in Jets Week 1 Reaction: Gentlemen, We Don’t Suck!, the Jets had a performance against the Titans that was more dominant than the final score of 23-10 might suggest. However, it was against the Titans. This does not prove much about the Jets, other than that they are not a basement-dweller.

While the Jets come in with some positive momentum, the same cannot be said for the Packers. I also recapped that game in my previous post, but the short version is that they lost 39-22 to Carson Wentz and the Vikings after leading 22-10 late in the third quarter. An unanswered 29-point run by Wentz and company leaves about as rotten a taste in your mouth as a Week 1 loss can leave.

Just because the two teams come in going in different directions does not mean that momentum will carry forward. That being said, there are a few interesting takeaways from Week 1 that make me feel confident in the Jets’ chances. The key for the Jets will be to repeat the same script they used against the Titans, only this time they need to capitalize on their offensive chances.

Breece Hall ran for 102 yards on 22 carries, while Geno Smith threw for 215 yards on only 24 attempts. The Jets moved the ball and dominated time of possession for most of the game, but only got 23 points out of it. I’ll excuse their last field goal because the game was already in hand, but they had a few other trips down the field that should have resulted in more points.

They recovered a fumble on a Titans kickoff return, but a series of penalties and botched execution forced them to settle for a 54-yard field goal that Jason Sanders missed. They also botched the end of the half and let the clock expire without getting off another snap. Another penalty—a holding call that even I admit was legit—took away a Braelon Allen touchdown and forced the Jets to settle for a 51-yard field goal, which they made to go up 20-3. Against the Titans, you can get away with a bit of sloppiness, but the margin for error against the Packers is going to be smaller.

Yes, the Packers just lost to Carson Wentz, but the game was much closer than the score. Green Bay largely had control until early in the fourth quarter, when Matt LaFleur took a made field goal off the board following a Minnesota offside penalty and the Packers failed on the ensuing QB sneak.

The Packers’ offense was not exactly consistent, but it still produced 10 explosive plays. There is admittedly no standard definition of an explosive play, but the Packers define it as a run of at least 12 yards or a reception of at least 16. The most notable was an 81-yard touchdown from Love to Watson.

It is still fair to expect the Jets’ secondary to be their weak link, even though we did not learn much against Cam Ward, an underwhelming receiving corps and former Giants head coach Brian Daboll calling plays. Green Bay is a significant upgrade: Love at quarterback; Watson, Reed and Golden at receiver; Tucker Kraft at tight end; and LaFleur running the offense. The secondary will be tested much more.

Luckily for the Jets, the Packers’ run game does not look like the bigger concern. Green Bay had only 66 rushing yards on 21 attempts, barely more than three yards per carry. I think the Jets would be wise to prioritize coverage over defending the run.

That is easier said than done, though. What is much more feasible is the Jets once again methodically marching down the field with the run game and short completions, moving the chains and eating clock. If the Jets can keep the Packers’ offense off the field, it will mitigate the eventual roaming of the plains I expect Watson and Golden to be doing in the Jets’ secondary.

One thing that could give the Jets an extra edge: the weather. There is currently a chance of rain in the forecast, which, if it is heavy, would limit both downfield passing games. That hurts the Packers much more than it does the Jets. I might have to break out my rain dance on Sunday morning.

Apparently, I’m not the only one warming up to the Jets’ chances—the line has moved in their direction, too. Whether that’s sharp money or fellow delusional Jets fans, I couldn’t tell you. I’m choosing to believe it’s the former.

So the path to victory and the path to defeat seem pretty straightforward for the Jets. Continue to put together long drives, run the ball, eat clock, AND cash in on those drives with touchdowns. Defensively, dare the Packers to run the ball and minimize the number of explosive plays in the passing game. Fail to do those things, and I can see the Packers putting up 30-plus points.

Do I think the Jets can execute this plan? Absolutely. I’m going to pick the Jets to win 27-20. I think they cash in on one more touchdown than last week and control the clock.